Vice President Yemi Osinbajo said yesterday that unemployment may rise to 33.6 percent, which means a total of 39.4 million people will be jobless by the end of 2020, if the country fails “to take prompt pre-emptive measures”.
Osinbajo said this while presenting a post COVID-19 Economic Sustainability Plan to President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. The plan entitled “Bouncing Back: The Nigerian Economic Sustainability Plan”, was prepared by the Vice President-led Economic Sustainability Committee (ESC) constituted on March 30, 2020 by President Buhari.
The vice president also said that with a severe downturn in oil earnings, the country would have a shortfall of about N185 billion every month. He said: “In addition, the inevitable mandatory lockdown and social distancing measures put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19 have had a severe negative impact on farms and factories, as well as on trade, transport and tourism. Several projections, including those done by the NBS on behalf of the Economic Sustainability Committee, showed:
“A severe downturn in our oil earnings, as a result of which, even with oil price at $30 a barrel, we would still have a shortfall of about N185 billion every month, in the amount available for allocation to the three tiers of government;
“That unemployment may rise to 33.6% or about 39.4 million people by the end of 2020, if we fail to take prompt pre-emptive measures; “That millions more will fall into extreme poverty, before the pandemic ends;
“That GDP may fall to between minus 4.40% and minus 8.91%, depending on the length of the lockdown period and strength of our economic response.”
Osinbajo, however, expressed confidence that Nigeria “will avert the worst of the impending economic headwinds and convert this crisis to a victory for the Nigerian economy” “if the proposals are taken as a whole and implemented conscientiously”.
The vice president, who said the key to the success of the plan was ‘implementation’, stated that the committee recommended that each minister would be responsible for supervising the implementation of plans situated in their respective ministries. The ministers, he added, would also be responsible for ensuring synergy between all relevant stakeholders across the public and private sectors.
He said the ESC, which is inter-ministerial in nature, should only remain to oversee plan implementation, ensure inter-ministerial coordination, and report regularly to the president, while expenditure is monitored through the National Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework and the Budget Office of the Federation.
Recommendations in the plan He said the ESC was motivated by the president’s directive to come up with a plan that would provide succour to Nigerians, taking into account the dangers posed to the economy by the global economic slowdown, which also resulted in a drastic fall in crude oil production and prices, with serious implications for government revenues and foreign exchange earnings.
Osinbajo, who stated that the ESC considered the existing government policies and strategies and consulted with members of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC), the 36 state governors; and the leadership of the National Assembly, said the committee therefore recommended that “we must carry out mass programmes that create jobs and utilise local materials.” This, he said, included a mass agricultural programme, expected to bring between 20,000 and 100,000 hectares of new farmland under cultivation in every state of the federation and create millions of direct and indirect job opportunities.
He added that the plan made provision for extensive public works and road construction programmes by focusing on both major and rural roads and using locally available materials like limestone, cement and granite. Osinbajo also listed a mass housing programme to deliver up to 300,000 homes annually, engaging young professionals and artisans who formed themselves into small and medium scale businesses within the construction industry, using indigenous labour and materials.
He also mentioned the installation of a solar home system, targeting five million households, serving about 25 million Nigerians, who are currently not connected to the national grid. Osinbajo said: “We have also recommended –
(i) support for local production and manufacturing of all that is possible, including tech apps, software, shoes, garments, steel fabrication, ceramics and furniture, with the required capital and essential machinery.
“(ii) The provision of ample support for the informal sector through low interest loans and by easing procedures for registration, licensing, obtaining permits, etc. By these means, urban and informal business people like mechanics, tailors, artisans, and petty traders, will be encouraged to improve and develop their services.
“(iii) Support for MSMEs, especially in assisting to restructure their loans with banks. Among others, this will assist businesses in the pharmaceutical, aviation, and the hospitality industry, private schools, road transportation, technology companies, and the creative industry, amongst others.
“(iv) Facilitation of broadband connectivity across the country and creation of a wide variety of technology and ICT jobs.
“(v) Expansion of the Social Investment Programme, through an increase in the number of cash transfer beneficiaries, N-Power volunteers and sundry traders enjoying small and micro loans through the MarketMoni and TraderMoni schemes. The pre-existing conditional cash transfer will also be extended to cover a larger number of the extremely poor.”
Buhari While speaking, President Muhammadu Buhari hailed Nigerians for their resilience and adapting to the realities of COVID-19 that threw the entire world into serious economic crisis thus, making things difficult.
He said: “While the COVID-19 pandemic spread through our towns and cities, it continues to take a massive toll on the economy. I know that many of us have experienced great difficulty during this time, businesses have considerably slowed down and in certain instances, operations closed, work days have been cut short and personal liberties restricted, people have lost their jobs and earning a living has indeed been difficult. “This has been a trying time for those in the informal sector, which constitutes a large part of our economy, important family celebrations were held without the presence of loved ones, schools are closed and parents have had to resort to home schooling in addition to juggling other responsibilities.
“Despite all these, Nigerians have done their best and persevered. I must salute Nigerians for their resilience in adapting to the realities of the COVID-19, while also recognising the super human effort of our frontline health workers who continue to play a critical role in keeping our country and people safe.” Buhari said more efforts would be geared towards making life better for citizens.